中國是全球最大的黃金需求國,每年都有大量的黃金被進口到中國,那么,這些黃金從何而來呢?
BullionStar分析師Koos Jansen指出,要知道中國市場真正黃金需求,可以看兩方面的數據,首先是世界黃金協會(WGC)的需求趨勢報告,其次則是上海黃金交易所(SGE)的黃金交割數據。
China is the world's largest gold consumer, and a huge amount of gold is imported into the country every year, so where does it come from?
BullionStar analyst Koos Jansen pointed out that to know the real gold demand in the Chinese market, you can look at two aspects of the data, the first is the World Gold Council (WGC) demand trend report, and the second is the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) gold delivery data.
Jansen指出,從上述數據來看,今年前三季度中國總計凈進口了777噸黃金,也就是今年全年的進口量將在1036噸左右。
就今年而言,被進口到中國大陸的黃金主要來自瑞士和中國香港。
9月瑞士凈出口了18噸黃金到中國,前三季度中國總計從瑞士進口了221噸,同比下降4%。
從圖表可以看出,雖然瑞士每個月都會有黃金被出口到中國,但實際上,大部分時候瑞士反而是凈進口方,因瑞士是全球黃金加工中心,反而有很多黃金被進口到瑞士。
結合歐洲統計局(Eurostat)和美國地質調查局(USGS)數據來看,從瑞士被出口到中國的黃金有很多個來源。
譬如在今年1月,英國出口了大量黃金到瑞士,而這其中顯然會有不少再被出口到中國。6月則有大量美國黃金被出口到瑞士,而9月有大量中東地區黃金被出口到瑞士,這些黃金都有可能被最終再出口到中國。
再看香港統計局的數據,數據顯示,9月香港地區出口了30噸黃金到中國大陸,環比下降8%,同比大降44%,前三季度有515噸黃金從香港地區被出口到中國大陸,同比下降15%。
Switzerland exported a net 18 tonnes of gold to China in September, bringing China's total imports from Switzerland to 221 tonnes in the first three quarters, down 4% from a year earlier.
As you can see from the chart, although Switzerland exports gold to China every month, in fact, most of the time Switzerland is a net importer, because Switzerland is a global gold processing center, a lot of gold is imported to Switzerland.
According to data from Eurostat and the United States Geological Survey (USGS), gold exports from Switzerland to China come from a variety of sources.
For example, in January this year, the UK exported a large amount of gold to Switzerland, and a lot of this will obviously be exported to China. In June, a large amount of US gold was exported to Switzerland, and in September, a large amount of Middle Eastern gold was exported to Switzerland, which is likely to be eventually re-exported to China.
Looking at the data of the Hong Kong Bureau of Statistics, the data show that in September, Hong Kong exported 30 tons of gold to the Chinese mainland, down 8% from the previous quarter, down 44%, the first three quarters of 515 tons of gold from Hong Kong was exported to the Chinese mainland, down 15%.
和瑞士相似,香港也是一大黃金交易中心,因此香港地區黃金的來源也是多種多樣的。
從2013年到2015年年中,香港地區進口了大量黃金,主要來源是瑞士和英國,而從香港地區進口最多黃金的則是中國大陸。
此后,西方國家出口到香港的黃金逐漸減少,但中國大陸的進口量基本維持,因此香港地區成為了凈出口黃金的地區。在這種狀況持續幾年之后,香港地區本身還持有多少黃金則成為一個謎團。
從2002年到2008年間,香港地區一直是處在黃金凈出口狀態中的,之后到2015年為止,則轉而成為凈進口方,但在2015年之后,再次變為凈出口方。
Like Switzerland, Hong Kong is also a major gold trading center, so the sources of gold in the region are diverse.
After several years of this, it is a mystery how much gold Hong Kong itself still holds.
From 2002 to 2008, Hong Kong was a net exporter of gold, then switched to being a net importer until 2015, and then became a net exporter again after 2015.
值得注意的是,Comex有一個1公斤金條的黃金合約,其交割地點是在香港,這一合約的交易量很小,因此交割量也很小。但與此同時,該合約的金庫吞吐量卻相當驚人。
Jansen指出,可以看出該金礦中1公斤金條的進庫量和交割量與香港地區對中國大陸的黃金進出口量是有很大相關性的。
也就是說,香港地區是中國大陸主要的黃金來源地區,而香港地區的黃金來源于多個國家。
從圖中可以看出,香港地區進口的黃金中,最多的是來自瑞士、南非、美國、澳大利亞和菲律賓等國。而這些黃金很大一部分都最終被再出口到了中國大陸。
除了瑞士和香港地區,中國大陸黃金進口來源第三的就是澳大利亞、美國、日本和加拿大,今年至今分別進口了20噸、14噸、3噸和4噸。
由此來看,今年至今中國大陸進口的這777噸黃金中,515噸來自中國香港;221噸來自瑞士;20噸來自澳大利亞、14噸來自美國、3噸來自日本、4噸來自加拿大。
此外,中國還是全球最大的黃金生產國,而中國本身礦產的黃金是完全不出口的,正因此,中國國內到底有多少黃金一直是國際市場在猜測的一個謎團。
It is worth noting that Comex has a 1 kg bullion gold contract with a delivery point in Hong Kong, and the volume of this contract is very small, so the delivery volume is also very small. But at the same time, the contract's vault throughput is quite staggering.
As can be seen from the chart, Hong Kong imports the most gold from Switzerland, South Africa, the United States, Australia and the Philippines and other countries.
In addition to Switzerland and Hong Kong, China's third largest source of gold imports is Australia, the United States, Japan and Canada, which have imported 20 tons, 14 tons, 3 tons and 4 tons, respectively, so far this year.
Of the 777 tons of gold imported to China so far this year, 515 tons came from Hong Kong; 221 tons from Switzerland; 20 tons from Australia, 14 tons from the United States, 3 tons from Japan and 4 tons from Canada.
In addition, China is also the world's largest gold producer, and China's own gold minerals are not exported at all, which is why exactly how much gold in China has been a mystery in the international market.
據中國黃金協會數據顯示,今年前三季度中國的黃金礦產總量為313噸,那么加上777噸的進口量,就是總計1090噸的供應量。同時,上海黃金交易所在前三季度交割了1505噸,那么意味著還有差不多415噸的黃金供應來自廢料回收和投資撤資。
Jansen認為,中國所持有的所有黃金量目前在16575噸,如果加上中國央行實際的黃金儲備可能有4000噸左右,那么總計有20575噸左右的黃金。
(黃金頭條)
According to the China Gold Association, China's gold mines totaled 313 tons in the first three quarters of this year, so adding 777 tons of imports makes a total supply of 1,090 tons. At the same time, the Shanghai Gold Exchange delivered 1,505 tonnes in the first three quarters, which means that almost 415 tonnes of gold supply came from scrap recycling and investment divestment.
Jansen believes that China's total gold holdings currently stand at 16,575 tonnes, and if you add in the fact that the Chinese central bank's actual gold reserves may be around 4,000 tonnes, the total is around 20,575 tonnes of gold.
BullionStar分析師Koos Jansen指出,要知道中國市場真正黃金需求,可以看兩方面的數據,首先是世界黃金協會(WGC)的需求趨勢報告,其次則是上海黃金交易所(SGE)的黃金交割數據。
China is the world's largest gold consumer, and a huge amount of gold is imported into the country every year, so where does it come from?
BullionStar analyst Koos Jansen pointed out that to know the real gold demand in the Chinese market, you can look at two aspects of the data, the first is the World Gold Council (WGC) demand trend report, and the second is the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) gold delivery data.
Jansen指出,從上述數據來看,今年前三季度中國總計凈進口了777噸黃金,也就是今年全年的進口量將在1036噸左右。
就今年而言,被進口到中國大陸的黃金主要來自瑞士和中國香港。
9月瑞士凈出口了18噸黃金到中國,前三季度中國總計從瑞士進口了221噸,同比下降4%。
從圖表可以看出,雖然瑞士每個月都會有黃金被出口到中國,但實際上,大部分時候瑞士反而是凈進口方,因瑞士是全球黃金加工中心,反而有很多黃金被進口到瑞士。
結合歐洲統計局(Eurostat)和美國地質調查局(USGS)數據來看,從瑞士被出口到中國的黃金有很多個來源。
譬如在今年1月,英國出口了大量黃金到瑞士,而這其中顯然會有不少再被出口到中國。6月則有大量美國黃金被出口到瑞士,而9月有大量中東地區黃金被出口到瑞士,這些黃金都有可能被最終再出口到中國。
再看香港統計局的數據,數據顯示,9月香港地區出口了30噸黃金到中國大陸,環比下降8%,同比大降44%,前三季度有515噸黃金從香港地區被出口到中國大陸,同比下降15%。
Switzerland exported a net 18 tonnes of gold to China in September, bringing China's total imports from Switzerland to 221 tonnes in the first three quarters, down 4% from a year earlier.
As you can see from the chart, although Switzerland exports gold to China every month, in fact, most of the time Switzerland is a net importer, because Switzerland is a global gold processing center, a lot of gold is imported to Switzerland.
According to data from Eurostat and the United States Geological Survey (USGS), gold exports from Switzerland to China come from a variety of sources.
For example, in January this year, the UK exported a large amount of gold to Switzerland, and a lot of this will obviously be exported to China. In June, a large amount of US gold was exported to Switzerland, and in September, a large amount of Middle Eastern gold was exported to Switzerland, which is likely to be eventually re-exported to China.
Looking at the data of the Hong Kong Bureau of Statistics, the data show that in September, Hong Kong exported 30 tons of gold to the Chinese mainland, down 8% from the previous quarter, down 44%, the first three quarters of 515 tons of gold from Hong Kong was exported to the Chinese mainland, down 15%.
和瑞士相似,香港也是一大黃金交易中心,因此香港地區黃金的來源也是多種多樣的。
從2013年到2015年年中,香港地區進口了大量黃金,主要來源是瑞士和英國,而從香港地區進口最多黃金的則是中國大陸。
此后,西方國家出口到香港的黃金逐漸減少,但中國大陸的進口量基本維持,因此香港地區成為了凈出口黃金的地區。在這種狀況持續幾年之后,香港地區本身還持有多少黃金則成為一個謎團。
從2002年到2008年間,香港地區一直是處在黃金凈出口狀態中的,之后到2015年為止,則轉而成為凈進口方,但在2015年之后,再次變為凈出口方。
Like Switzerland, Hong Kong is also a major gold trading center, so the sources of gold in the region are diverse.
After several years of this, it is a mystery how much gold Hong Kong itself still holds.
From 2002 to 2008, Hong Kong was a net exporter of gold, then switched to being a net importer until 2015, and then became a net exporter again after 2015.
值得注意的是,Comex有一個1公斤金條的黃金合約,其交割地點是在香港,這一合約的交易量很小,因此交割量也很小。但與此同時,該合約的金庫吞吐量卻相當驚人。
Jansen指出,可以看出該金礦中1公斤金條的進庫量和交割量與香港地區對中國大陸的黃金進出口量是有很大相關性的。
也就是說,香港地區是中國大陸主要的黃金來源地區,而香港地區的黃金來源于多個國家。
從圖中可以看出,香港地區進口的黃金中,最多的是來自瑞士、南非、美國、澳大利亞和菲律賓等國。而這些黃金很大一部分都最終被再出口到了中國大陸。
除了瑞士和香港地區,中國大陸黃金進口來源第三的就是澳大利亞、美國、日本和加拿大,今年至今分別進口了20噸、14噸、3噸和4噸。
由此來看,今年至今中國大陸進口的這777噸黃金中,515噸來自中國香港;221噸來自瑞士;20噸來自澳大利亞、14噸來自美國、3噸來自日本、4噸來自加拿大。
此外,中國還是全球最大的黃金生產國,而中國本身礦產的黃金是完全不出口的,正因此,中國國內到底有多少黃金一直是國際市場在猜測的一個謎團。
It is worth noting that Comex has a 1 kg bullion gold contract with a delivery point in Hong Kong, and the volume of this contract is very small, so the delivery volume is also very small. But at the same time, the contract's vault throughput is quite staggering.
As can be seen from the chart, Hong Kong imports the most gold from Switzerland, South Africa, the United States, Australia and the Philippines and other countries.
In addition to Switzerland and Hong Kong, China's third largest source of gold imports is Australia, the United States, Japan and Canada, which have imported 20 tons, 14 tons, 3 tons and 4 tons, respectively, so far this year.
Of the 777 tons of gold imported to China so far this year, 515 tons came from Hong Kong; 221 tons from Switzerland; 20 tons from Australia, 14 tons from the United States, 3 tons from Japan and 4 tons from Canada.
In addition, China is also the world's largest gold producer, and China's own gold minerals are not exported at all, which is why exactly how much gold in China has been a mystery in the international market.
據中國黃金協會數據顯示,今年前三季度中國的黃金礦產總量為313噸,那么加上777噸的進口量,就是總計1090噸的供應量。同時,上海黃金交易所在前三季度交割了1505噸,那么意味著還有差不多415噸的黃金供應來自廢料回收和投資撤資。
Jansen認為,中國所持有的所有黃金量目前在16575噸,如果加上中國央行實際的黃金儲備可能有4000噸左右,那么總計有20575噸左右的黃金。
(黃金頭條)
According to the China Gold Association, China's gold mines totaled 313 tons in the first three quarters of this year, so adding 777 tons of imports makes a total supply of 1,090 tons. At the same time, the Shanghai Gold Exchange delivered 1,505 tonnes in the first three quarters, which means that almost 415 tonnes of gold supply came from scrap recycling and investment divestment.
Jansen believes that China's total gold holdings currently stand at 16,575 tonnes, and if you add in the fact that the Chinese central bank's actual gold reserves may be around 4,000 tonnes, the total is around 20,575 tonnes of gold.